Today, almost all general service lamp sockets (about 75%) are estimated to have longer life compact fluorescent and being occupied by it together with the general service LED bulbs. In summary, the new government regulation is designed to target less energy savings compared to the forecast of Department of Energy have forecasted way back few years ago. This is because there is a significant move seen on the market. This trend is estimated to continue beyond 2020.

In line with the bulbs not being a general service lamp, LBNL have included in their report that there were almost the same problem when it comes to data. The energy consumption, as well as the savings, is now measured by using the estimated number of lamps installed in the sockets. The Department of Energy utilizes an algorithm that will help them arrive at a number estimate and will not only rely on lamp shipments. The data should only include assumptions regarding the light bulb’s life and its longevity when it is installed in the socket before it can be replaced.

However, there is a direct relationship between the shipments of light bulb and the number of installed bulbs. The greater the number of shipments for a specific lamp type, it is safe to conclude that there will be more units of light bulb are going to be installed. In contrary to this, the fact is true if the event happened otherwise. The number figures Department of Energy arrived at for the incandescent lamp reflectors shipments exceeded the manufacturer’s expectation. The LBNL’s estimates for the installed bases used for incandescent reflector lamps are over exaggerated.

The Department of Energy’s data estimations regarding the shipments of the reflector lamps are either flat or growing slightly. But in reality, they were actually falling. Last 2018, NEMA the shipments for incandescent reflector lamp were expected to be less than a third of what DOE has estimated few years back. Partly the reason for this decline is the Department of Energy’s increase in energy efficiency standards for the incandescent reflector lamps (PAR and R.) These lamps required the infrared technology and made the cost of these lamps to go higher what is expected. Thus, the LED reflector lamps are priced in a competitive way compare to the price of the LED reflector lamps. The lamps started to fall.

If there were as many incandescent reflector lamps in the installed base of sockets consuming electricity that LBNL cited, NEMA members would be selling a lot more incandescent reflector lamps, and they are not. Again, American consumers, retailers, and manufacturers have beaten DOE to the regulatory punch. The regulation will achieve less energy savings than DOE could have forecasted because the market has already made a more significant move. And this trend will only continue to 2020 and beyond.

This fact is also true with other concerning speciality incandescent lamps – decorative and tubular lamps, for example – Department of Energy tried to illegally lump in the general service lamp category. Just recently, in its ruling, the Department of Energy has started to acknowledge that the data NEMA shared regarding the sale of these lamps have been declining.